Then vs now: how to compare trading performance over time
Compare your trading performance over time the fair way: equal stretches, no overlap or thin samples, how to read better, worse or same, and what to do next.
You remember your first months of trading as a mess. Today feels better. But 'feels better' is easy to get wrong in both directions: a good week makes you think you've arrived, and a bad one makes you think nothing has changed in a year.
To compare trading performance over time fairly, pick two stretches of equal length that don't overlap, make sure each has enough trades (at least 20) or accounts (at least 3), compare the same skill measures in both, and mark each one Better, Worse or Same. Then act on the one or two measures that matter most. Here's how to do each step without fooling yourself.
Step 1: choose fair stretches
The two stretches should be the same length, because a longer one naturally holds more trades, more bad days and more fees. Here are the comparisons that answer different questions:
| Comparison | Best for | Watch out for |
|---|---|---|
| First 3 months vs last 3 | The big picture since you started | Your first months may have few trades |
| Last year vs the year before | Steady progress once you have 2+ years | Different market conditions |
| First month vs last month | High-volume traders only | Thin samples for most people |
| Before vs after a change | Testing a new rule or size | Needs a few weeks after the change |
If you trade part-time, lean toward longer stretches. Three months of 6 trading days each gives you far less data than three months of daily trading.
The overlap trap
This one catches almost everyone. Say you've traded for 16 months and compare your first 12 with your last 12. Eight of those months appear in both stretches. You're comparing mostly the same trades with themselves, so real changes get watered down.
A hypothetical example, assuming the same number of trades each month: your win rate was 30% in months 1 to 4, 40% in months 5 to 12, and 50% in months 13 to 16. That's a 20-point improvement from start to now.
| Stretch | Months | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| First 12 | 1 to 12 | 36.7% |
| Last 12 | 5 to 16 | 43.3% |
| First 4 | 1 to 4 | 30% |
| Last 4 | 13 to 16 | 50% |
The overlapping comparison shows a 6.7-point gain. The clean one shows 20 points. Same trader, same trades, a very different story.
If two stretches share months, they share trades, and the difference you see is smaller than the one you made.
Step 2: pick measures of skill, not just money
Money matters, but for this question you want measures of how you trade. They move sooner and depend more on you:
- Win rate, average win and average loss, read together.
- Profit factor (gross profit divided by gross loss).
- P&L per trading day and worst day, to see if your bad days got less bad.
- Trades per day, a quiet sign of overtrading.
- Revenge trades per week and trades that broke your rules.
- For prop traders: days a blown account lasted, accounts blown per month, evaluation pass rate and firm fees per month.
One warning: if you changed instrument or size between the stretches (NQ to MES, or 3 contracts to 1), dollar measures will move for that reason alone. Lean on win rate, profit factor and behavior counts instead. For why each measure matters, see 7 stats that show real progress.
Step 3: respect thin samples
Your first month might hold 12 trades. A win rate from 12 trades can swing 15 points on two lucky fills. Set a floor before you look:
- At least 20 trades in each stretch for trading measures.
- At least 3 accounts in each stretch for account measures like pass rate.
- Below that, write 'not enough yet' and use a longer stretch or wait.
It's tempting to skip this when the thin number looks good. That's exactly when to apply it.
Step 4: read Better, Worse or Same
Decide before you compare how big a change has to be to count. A win rate that moved from 47% to 48% is Same. One that moved from 28% to 52% is Better. If you can't tell whether a change is real, call it Same; you'll see it clearly in the next comparison if it is.
Expect a mixed result. A sample trader in our demo, comparing their first 3 months with their last 3, was better on 8 of 12 measures: win rate 28% to 52%, profit factor 0.46 to 1.37, average loss −$182 to −$126, revenge trades 10.8 to 1.6 a week. Not everything improved, and it rarely does.
Give more weight to the measures you control most directly (average loss, revenge trades, rule breaks) than to win rate, which the market can push around for a while.
Step 5: do something with the result
- Mostly better: write down what you changed between the stretches, so you keep doing it on purpose. Then pick the one measure that didn't improve.
- Mostly worse: list what changed in between: size, instrument, firm, schedule, sleep, number of accounts. One of them is usually the answer.
- Mixed: choose the single worst measure and turn it into one daily rule. Compare again in a few weeks.
If you can name the date you made a change, compare the weeks before it with the weeks after. That's a turning point, and we cover it in trading turning points.
Write down the context next to the numbers
Numbers without context are easy to misread a year later. Next to each comparison, write a few lines about what was different in each stretch: how volatile the market was, which instrument and size you traded, how many accounts you ran, whether you were trading around a job, a new baby or a move. If your 'then' was a calm summer and your 'now' is a wild news-driven quarter, a Same on P&L per day may actually be progress. These notes turn a table into something you can learn from.
Then vs now in Market Matrix
In My Trading Journey, Am I getting better? has a Then vs now view. You pick any two stretches (the first or last month, 3, 6 or 12 months, or a specific year) and see 14 measures side by side, each marked Better, Worse or Same, or 'Not enough yet' when a stretch has fewer than 20 trades or 3 accounts. A switch shows prop firms, personal accounts or both together, and simulated prop results count here as skill, clearly labeled.
Turning points goes one step further: it finds the changes you made (a new rule you started ticking, a Playbook play added or retired, an experiment, a smaller size on one instrument) and compares 60 days before with 60 days after. It only shows one with 20+ trades on each side and at least 3 weeks after, and it tells you what happened after the change, not that the change caused it.
Make it a habit
Once a quarter is a good rhythm for then vs now; it fits naturally into a quarterly trading review. For the week-to-week view, use Am I improving as a trader? week over week. The short checks catch problems early; the long one tells you whether you're becoming a different trader.
This article is for education only and isn't financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss.