The retail sales report explained: what Americans are spending
What the retail sales report measures, who publishes it, when it comes out, the control group, and why consumer spending moves the market.
Consumer spending is about two thirds of the U.S. economy. The retail sales report is the quickest monthly look at it: how much Americans spent in stores, online and at restaurants last month. When shoppers slow down, the whole economy usually does too.
What the report is
The official name is the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report (also called Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services). It's published by the U.S. Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce, based on a survey of retail businesses.
When it comes out
| Published by | U.S. Census Bureau |
| How often | Monthly, for the previous month, around the middle of the month |
| Time | 8:30 a.m. New York time |
| Revisions | The last two months are revised with each report |
The numbers to watch
- Headline: total sales, month over month.
- Excluding autos: car sales are large and jumpy, so this shows the steadier trend.
- Excluding autos and gas: removes gas price swings too.
- The control group: excludes autos, gas, building materials and restaurants. It feeds directly into GDP, so many traders watch it most.
Retail sales are in dollars, not adjusted for inflation. If prices rose 0.4% and sales rose 0.4%, people didn’t actually buy more.
Every market it moves
This report doesn't only move futures. Here is what usually happens across markets in the first minutes and hours, compared with what economists expected. The ticker symbols in parentheses are the futures contracts traders use for each market.
| Market | Stronger than expected | Weaker than expected |
|---|---|---|
| Stock indexes: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Russell 2000 (ES, NQ, YM, RTY) | Mixed: good for company sales, but it can keep rates high | Mixed: it can bring rate cuts sooner, but a big miss raises recession fears |
| Retail stocks: Walmart, Amazon, Target, Home Depot | Usually rise | Usually fall |
| Treasury bonds (ZT, ZN, ZB) | Prices fall and yields rise | Prices rise and yields fall |
| U.S. dollar and currencies (DXY; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/MXN; 6E, 6J) | The dollar usually rises | The dollar usually falls |
| Gold (GC) | Usually falls | Usually rises |
| Crude oil and gasoline (CL, RB) | Small rise: more shopping means more driving and shipping | Small fall |
| Bitcoin and crypto | Mixed | Mixed |
These are the usual first reactions, not rules. When the market fears a slowdown more than inflation, good news can become bad news for stocks, and the other way around. Watch how prices actually react before acting on the number. The dollar, oil and gold and bonds and yields explained go deeper into how these markets connect.
What it means for futures traders
- Strong spending says the economy is healthy, but can also mean rates stay higher for longer. The reaction depends on what the market fears more at the time: a slowdown or inflation.
- Weak spending can raise hopes for rate cuts, or recession fears. Watch how ES and NQ react to the first minutes, not just the number.
- Revisions count: a strong month with a big downward revision to the month before can be weaker than it looks.
How to handle it
Retail sales often share the 8:30 a.m. slot with other reports. Know the date, and give the market a few minutes after the release before trading. GDP explained shows where consumer spending fits in the big picture. Market Matrix shows retail sales on the Market events calendar with an alert you can set.
This article is for education only and isn't financial advice. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. Release dates and times come from the agencies that publish the data and can change.